就像最高法院(SCOTUS)的杰利蝾螈选区案，共和党又一次用了烂数据
>A US Census Report on Noncitizen Voting Used Bad Data to Reach Faulty Conclusions
>美国人口普查局一份关于非公民投票的报告用烂数据得出了错误结论
Trump has touted a recent Census report. WIRED found grave flaws in its analysis and the process behind it, and confirmed the identity of several of its authors—among them a one-time DOGE affiliate.
特朗普吹捧了一份新出的人口普查报告。《连线》(WIRED)发现其分析和流程都有严重缺陷，并确认了几位作者的身份——其中包括一名前政府效率部(DOGE)相关人员。
A report published by the US Census Bureau last month purported to uncover evidence backing up President Donald Trump’s baseless claims that noncitizens voting cost him the 2020 election. It was the latest salvo in Trump’s broader assault on the safety of US elections. “I WON THE ELECTION,” Trump quickly declared on Truth Social after the publication of the report.
美国人口普查局上月发布的一份报告，声称找到了支持特朗普总统“非公民投票让他输掉 2020 年大选”这一无据说法的证据。这是特朗普对美国政府选举安全更大攻势中的最新一轮。报告发布后，特朗普很快在真实社交(Truth Social)上宣布：“我赢了选举。”
However, though Trump and other government officials quickly shared and praised the report, a WIRED investigation has uncovered significant flaws in the data used to compile the report, as well as in the approval process used prior to publication. WIRED has also learned that a number of the report’s authors have links to the Trump administration and the Republican party. They include one former affiliate of Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency and two researchers from the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a highly influential think tank founded by veterans of Trump’s first administration.
然而，尽管特朗普和其他政府官员迅速转发并称赞这份报告，《连线》的调查发现，报告所用的数据存在重大缺陷，发布前的审批流程也有问题。《连线》还了解到，报告的多位作者与特朗普政府和共和党关系密切，其中包括埃隆·马斯克那个所谓政府效率部(Department of Government Efficiency)的一名前相关人员，以及“美国优先政策研究所”(America First Policy Institute, AFPI)的两名研究员——那是由特朗普首届政府老班底创立、影响力巨大的智库。
The report, titled “Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election: A Beginning Analysis,” claims that an analysis of over 128 million voter records from the 2020 election identified 24,000 people tied to administrative records indicating noncitizen status. The numbers range from 4,300 in California to fewer than 15 in Wyoming—not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the presidential race. But even these figures seem extremely questionable, and experts and Census Bureau employees who spoke to WIRED allege it is much likelier that they represent basic analytical errors than actual instances of noncitizen voting.
这份题为《2020 年大选中的非公民投票：初步分析》的报告声称，对 2020 年大选超过 1.28 亿条选民记录的分析，识别出 2.4 万人在行政记录中显示为非公民身份。数字从加州的 4300 人到怀俄明州的不到 15 人不等——远远不足以影响总统选举结果。而且连这些数字都极其可疑，接受《连线》采访的专家和人口普查局员工称，它们更可能只是基础分析错误，而非真实的非公民投票案例。
The Census Bureau did not respond to a request for comment. The White House directed WIRED to President Donald Trump’s post on Truth Social and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s post on X, where both officials praised the report.
人口普查局未回应置评请求。白宫让《连线》去看特朗普总统在真实社交上的帖子和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克(Howard Lutnick)在 X 上的帖子，两位官员都在帖子里称赞了这份报告。
The number of noncitizens voting in US elections has been repeatedly shown to be vanishingly small. In Utah, for example, the state’s top election official, Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson, reviewed the state’s approximately 2.1 million registered voters. The result was the discovery of 27 “confirmed noncitizens,” none of whom was ever confirmed to have voted. Studies in Pennsylvania and Idaho have returned similar outcomes. Still, the idea that a flood of noncitizens have been voting in US elections for over a decade, skewing the outcomes, has remained one of the central conspiracy theories promoted by Trump and his allies.
非公民在美国选举中投票的数量已被反复证明少到可以忽略。比如在犹他州，该州最高选举官员、副州长迪尔德丽·亨德森(Deidre Henderson)核查了全州约 210 万登记选民，结果发现 27 名“确认的非公民”，且没有一人被证实投过票。宾夕法尼亚州和爱达荷州的研究也得出了类似结果。尽管如此，“十年来大量非公民一直在美国投票、左右选举结果”的说法仍然是特朗普及其盟友力推的核心阴谋论之一。
John Abowd, former associate director for research and methodology and chief scientist at the Census Bureau, called the Census report “statistical nonsense” and wrote on LinkedIn that “it is extremely uncommon for the US Census Bureau to publish a research report, even one of blog length, without the authors explicitly listed.”
人口普查局前研究与统计方法副局长兼首席科学家约翰·阿博德(John Abowd)称这份报告是“统计胡话”，并在领英(LinkedIn)上写道：“美国人口普查局发布研究报告——哪怕只是博客长度的——却不明确列出作者，这是极其罕见的。”
Census Bureau sources who spoke to WIRED on the condition of anonymity could not say what prompted the report. Records reviewed by WIRED, though, show it originated at the Center for Economic Studies, a division within the Census Bureau that uses confidential data to conduct research.
以匿名身份接受《连线》采访的人口普查局消息人士说，他们说不清是什么促成了这份报告。不过《连线》查阅的记录显示，它源自经济研究中心(Center for Economic Studies)——普查局内部一个利用机密数据进行研究的部门。
According to those records, one of the authors was Dan Sweeney, currently a deputy general counsel at the Department of Commerce overseeing the Census Bureau. He previously worked as the “DOGE legal liaison and deregulatory attorney” at the Environmental Protection Agency, according to his LinkedIn profile. Michael Lachanski was also an author, according to two sources with knowledge of the report’s origins, and he was appointed to his current role as the deputy director for data, policy, and science at the Census Bureau just two months ago. Previously, he was a fellow at the Trump-aligned Claremont Institute.
据这些记录，其中一位作者是丹·斯威尼(Dan Sweeney)，现任商务部监管人口普查局的副总法律顾问。他的领英资料显示，他此前在环保署(EPA)担任“DOGE 法律联络与去监管律师”。两位了解报告来源的消息人士称，迈克尔·拉昌斯基(Michael Lachanski)也是作者之一，他两个月前刚被任命为现职：人口普查局数据、政策与科学副局长。此前他是亲特朗普的克莱蒙特研究所(Claremont Institute)的研究员。
Most Popular
热门文章
OpenAI Just Claimed a Huge Math Discovery. Some Academics Are Crying Foul
OpenAI 刚宣称取得重大数学发现。一些学者大喊有黑幕
Artificial Intelligence
人工智能
OpenAI Just Claimed a Huge Math Discovery. Some Academics Are Crying Foul
OpenAI 刚宣称取得重大数学发现。一些学者大喊有黑幕
By Will Knight
文：威尔·奈特(Will Knight)
To Boldly Dough! Le Creuset Sent Its New Star Trek Cooking Collection Into Space
大胆地揉面去！酷彩(Le Creuset)把全新的星际迷航(Star Trek)厨具系列送上了太空
Gear
To Boldly Dough! Le Creuset Sent Its New Star Trek Cooking Collection Into Space
大胆地揉面去！酷彩(Le Creuset)把全新的星际迷航(Star Trek)厨具系列送上了太空
By Jeremy White
文：杰里米·怀特(Jeremy White)
We’ve Got a ‘Supersized’ El Niño on Our Hands
我们摊上一个“超大杯”厄尔尼诺了
Environment
We’ve Got a ‘Supersized’ El Niño on Our Hands
我们摊上一个“超大杯”厄尔尼诺了
By Molly Taft
文：莫莉·塔夫特(Molly Taft)
Astronomers Have Completed the Largest Map of Space. Yes, You Can Play With It
天文学家完成了最大的太空地图。没错，你可以上手玩
Space
Astronomers Have Completed the Largest Map of Space. Yes, You Can Play With It
天文学家完成了最大的太空地图。没错，你可以上手玩
By Ritsuko Kawai
文：河合律子(Ritsuko Kawai)
The two America First staffers involved in authoring the report, according to records reviewed by WIRED, were Matthew Jensen and Jeff McCrea. McCrea previously served as campaign manager for former congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, who has expressed a belief in creationism and signed an amicus brief contesting the 2020 election results. Jensen previously worked for the American Enterprise Institute, where, according to his bio on the America First Policy Institute website, “contributed to the design of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” the tax law passed during the first Trump administration
据《连线》查阅的记录，参与撰写报告的两名“美国优先”工作人员是马修·延森(Matthew Jensen)和杰夫·麦克雷(Jeff McCrea)。麦克雷此前是华盛顿州前众议员凯茜·麦克莫里斯·罗杰斯(Cathy McMorris Rodgers)的竞选经理，后者信奉创造论，并在质疑 2020 年选举结果的法庭之友陈述书上签过名。延森此前任职于美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)，按“美国优先政策研究所”网站上的简介，他“参与了《减税与就业法》的设计”——那是特朗普首届政府通过的那部税法。
Somehow it copied the text on the side at the same time promoting other articles. I apologize.
不知怎么搞的，复制正文时把侧边栏推荐的其他文章也一起带上了。抱歉。
Sources who spoke to WIRED on the condition of anonymity confirmed that Jensen and McCrea are working in government on loan from America First through what is known as the Intergovernment Personnel Act. The IPA is meant to allow people with specialized skill sets from certain institutions, like nonprofits and universities, to work for the government for up to two years on a temporary appointment.
以匿名身份接受《连线》采访的消息人士证实，延森和麦克雷是根据所谓的《政府间人员法》(Intergovernment Personnel Act)从“美国优先”借调到政府工作的。该法允许来自非营利组织和大学等机构、拥有专业技能的人以临时任命的方式为政府工作最多两年。
Danah Boyd, a professor at Cornell University who studies the census, says that the Bureau has long used IPAs for scientific work. “But they do what the civil servants require them to do, not what the political [appointees] require them to do.”
研究人口普查的康奈尔大学教授达娜·博伊德(Danah Boyd)说，普查局长期使用借调人员(IPA)做科学工作。“但他们做的是公务员要求他们做的事，而不是政治任命官员要求他们做的事。”
Boyd says that the group of people who records indicate authored the noncitizen voting report appear to be of a different stripe. “These ultimately appear to be people coming from a Republican operation that’s pretending to be a 501c3,” she says. “Rather than doing the work for the agency, it appears they’re doing work in political interest.” The AFPI did not respond to a request for comment.
博伊德说，记录显示撰写这份非公民投票报告的这群人看起来是另一路人。“这些人归根结底来自一个伪装成 501c3(免税非营利组织)的共和党操作机构，”她说，“他们不是在为机构做事，看起来是在为政治利益做事。”“美国优先政策研究所”(AFPI)未回应置评请求。
The report was approved by the Census Bureau’s disclosure review board on August 7 through an email vote, which is typically used for publications with tight deadlines or in response to demands from Congress or the White House. The members of the review board who approved the report were shown the three tables contained in the final publication, but not the analysis that accompanied them, according to one source within the bureau who had access to the materials submitted to the review board.
该报告于 8 月 7 日经人口普查局披露审查委员会以邮件表决方式通过——这种方式通常用于截稿期紧的出版物，或响应国会与白宫的要求。据一位能看到提交给审查委员会材料的人口普查局内部人士透露，批准该报告的审查委员会成员只看到了最终出版物中的三张表格，而没有看到随附的分析。
The report concludes that the author’s analysis “readily determined with high confidence that over 128 million of these voter records represented citizens, and that over 24,000 of these voter records represented noncitizens at the time of the election. Over 32 million voter records remain to be analyzed.”
报告结论称，作者的分析“以高置信度轻松判定：其中超过 1.28 亿条选民记录代表公民，超过 2.4 万条选民记录在选举时代表非公民。还有超过 3200 万条选民记录有待分析。”
According to documents viewed by WIRED, the authors used data from the DataClear 2020 voting file—a commercial dataset—as well as USCIS immigration records (both the 2025 extract and the February 2026 A-number and case files); USCIS DACA approvals from 2025; State Department immigrant and nonimmigrant visas for 2017 through 2023; ICE student, removal, and national-docket records; IRS form 1040 for 2020; Social Security Numident (2019 and 2020); and State Department passport issuances across 50 vintages from 1978 through 2025.
据 WIRED 查阅的文件，作者使用了 DataClear 2020 投票文件（一个商业数据集）、USCIS 移民记录（2025 年提取版和 2026 年 2 月的 A 号与案件档案）、USCIS 2025 年 DACA 批准记录、国务院 2017 至 2023 年移民与非移民签证记录、ICE 学生/遣返/全国案卷记录、2020 年 IRS 1040 表、社会安全 Numident（2019 与 2020），以及国务院 1978 至 2025 年间 50 个版本的护照签发记录。
Most Popular
热门文章
OpenAI Just Claimed a Huge Math Discovery. Some Academics Are Crying Foul
OpenAI 刚宣称取得重大数学发现。一些学者大喊有黑幕
Artificial Intelligence
人工智能
OpenAI Just Claimed a Huge Math Discovery. Some Academics Are Crying Foul
OpenAI 刚宣称取得重大数学发现。一些学者大喊有黑幕
By Will Knight
文：威尔·奈特(Will Knight)
To Boldly Dough! Le Creuset Sent Its New Star Trek Cooking Collection Into Space
大胆地揉面去！酷彩(Le Creuset)把全新的星际迷航(Star Trek)厨具系列送上了太空
Gear
To Boldly Dough! Le Creuset Sent Its New Star Trek Cooking Collection Into Space
大胆地揉面去！酷彩(Le Creuset)把全新的星际迷航(Star Trek)厨具系列送上了太空
By Jeremy White
文：杰里米·怀特(Jeremy White)
We’ve Got a ‘Supersized’ El Niño on Our Hands
我们摊上一个“超大杯”厄尔尼诺了
Environment
We’ve Got a ‘Supersized’ El Niño on Our Hands
我们摊上一个“超大杯”厄尔尼诺了
By Molly Taft
文：莫莉·塔夫特(Molly Taft)
Astronomers Have Completed the Largest Map of Space. Yes, You Can Play With It
天文学家完成了最大的太空地图。没错，你可以上手玩
Space
Astronomers Have Completed the Largest Map of Space. Yes, You Can Play With It
天文学家完成了最大的太空地图。没错，你可以上手玩
By Ritsuko Kawai
文：河合律子(Ritsuko Kawai)
Former Census officials say the breadth of data used, as well as the lack of clear explanation of the methodology employed to analyze it, raises significant red flags.
前人口普查局官员表示，所用数据的广泛程度，加上对分析方法缺乏清晰说明，亮起了重大警示信号。
“We don't know whether or how the sources are updating their citizenship info,” Amy O’Hara, a former official who used to run the administrative data linkage unit at Census, tells WIRED. “It is really hard to join and deduplicate these files, especially across a range of years.”
“我们不知道这些信源是否、以及如何更新它们的公民身份信息，”曾在人口普查局主管行政数据关联部门的前官员艾米·奥哈拉(Amy O'Hara)告诉 WIRED。“把这些文件关联并去重极其困难，尤其是横跨多年份的时候。”
In order to match people between surveys and records without revealing their identities, the Census Bureau uses what are known as Protected Identification Keys (PIKs), which replace identifying information with a unique code. Sources who spoke to WIRED say that they are unsure which data points were used to match PIK data across the many datasets, though something like an address could be used for cross-referencing.
为了在不暴露身份的情况下在调查和记录之间匹配个人，人口普查局使用所谓“受保护识别密钥”(PIK)，用唯一代码替换身份信息。接受 WIRED 采访的知情者表示，他们不确定在众多数据集之间是用哪些数据点来匹配 PIK 的，不过地址之类的东西可能被用来交叉核对。
Though PIKs have been used for years to allow academics and government employees to conduct studies without compromising the privacy of the people whose data it is, they are not foolproof. A January 2026 study published by the Census earlier this year found that “while PIK assignment is generally accurate, some person records are not successfully assigned a PIK, which can lead to sample selection bias in analyses of linked data.”
虽然 PIK 多年来一直被用来让学者和政府雇员在不损害数据当事人隐私的情况下开展研究，但它们并非万无一失。人口普查局今年 1 月发表的一项研究发现：“虽然 PIK 分配总体准确，但某些个人记录未能成功分配 PIK，这可能在关联数据分析中造成样本选择偏差。”
“The brief says ‘high confidence,’ which indicates some probability,” one bureau source who spoke on the condition of anonymity over fears of retribution by the administration, tells WIRED. “However, no confidence intervals in the tables of the brief are shown. The supposed count of non-voters is small relative to the total state population.” The source alleges that there are probably PIK errors and not actual noncitizens who voted.
“简报说‘高置信度’，这表明存在某种概率，”一位因担心政府报复而要求匿名的人口普查局消息人士告诉 WIRED。“但简报的表格里没有展示任何置信区间。所谓非公民投票者的数量相对全州人口而言很小。”该消息人士称，那多半是 PIK 错误，而不是真正的投了票的非公民。
Abowd says that false match rates—in this case, when a voting record is assigned the wrong PIK, and then when it is “matched” with citizenship data–are likely to be higher when using commercial data like those used in the report. This means that the analysis is more likely to return a “false positive” showing that a noncitizen had voted. “You can’t estimate the false positive rate without more technical details” that were not included in the report, Abowd tells WIRED. “Because the false match rate is much greater than the estimated noncitizen voting rate, the alleged noncitizen voters are more likely to be data errors.”
阿鲍德(Abowd)说，错误匹配率——此处指选民记录被分配了错误的 PIK，随后又与公民身份数据“匹配”——在使用本报告所用的商业数据时会更高。这意味着该分析更容易返回“假阳性”，显示某个非公民投过票。“没有报告未包含的更多技术细节，你无法估计假阳性率，”阿鲍德告诉 WIRED。“由于错误匹配率远高于估计的非公民投票率，被指控的非公民投票者更可能是数据错误。”
All of this, Boyd worries, could undermine more than just trust in voting and elections—it could make academics and researchers doubt the quality and reliability of the products and data that the Census Bureau produces. “They're putting it out with the imprimatur of the Census Bureau so it looks legitimate,” she says. “But there’s no authors, no methods, no discussions of the limitations of the data, or the Bureau's approach.”
博伊德(Boyd)担心，这一切可能损害的不只是对投票和选举的信任——还可能让学者和研究人员怀疑人口普查局产出的产品与数据的质量和可靠性。“他们打着人口普查局的招牌发布它，所以看起来很正规，”她说。“但没有作者、没有方法、没有讨论数据或该局方法的局限。”
Republicans have already attacked the accuracy of the 2020 census, alleging that an algorithmic process used by the Bureau to protect data privacy had disproportionately favored Democrats in terms of the drawing of congressional districts. In August, WIRED reported that an internal memo circulated by the Department of Commerce, which oversees the Census Bureau, proposed excluding immigrants from the count, a move that could radically reshape how congressional districts are apportioned.
共和党人早已攻击 2020 年人口普查的准确性，声称该局用于保护数据隐私的算法程序在国会选区划分上不成比例地偏袒民主党。8 月，WIRED 报道称，主管人口普查局的商务部一份内部传阅备忘录提议把移民排除在统计之外——此举可能彻底重塑国会选区的分配方式。
The report is also just one part of a broad attack on the integrity of American elections by the Trump administration, which includes weaponizing the Department of Justice, dismantling voter protections, attempting to wrest control of election administration from states, and pushing an endless barrage of baseless conspiracy theories about voting in America.
这份报告也只是特朗普政府对美国选举诚信广泛攻击的一部分，其中包括将司法部武器化、拆除选民保护措施、试图从各州手中夺取选举管理权，以及不断输出关于美国投票的无休止且毫无根据的阴谋论。
>>1535103
>WIRED found
>WIRED 发现
lol OK, Tencent.
哈哈行，腾讯。
Your facts hurt my feelings so I'm going to dismiss them out of hand like
你们的事实伤了我的感情，所以我要像这样把它们直接无视掉
>>1535122
>>1535103
>>1535107
>>1535111
tl;dr
>The report is also just one part of a broad attack on the integrity of American elections by the Trump administration, which includes weaponizing the Department of Justice, dismantling voter protections, attempting to wrest control of election administration from states, and pushing an endless barrage of baseless conspiracy theories about voting in America.
>这份报告也只是特朗普政府对美国选举诚信广泛攻击的一部分，其中包括将司法部武器化、拆除选民保护措施、试图从各州手中夺取选举管理权，以及不断输出关于美国投票的无休止且毫无根据的阴谋论。
>>1535122
This. Trump said the report is factual so it’s factual
说得好。特朗普说报告是事实的，那它就是事实的
>>1535181
Trump tells the truth. The liggeral MSM lies. Simple as.
特朗普讲真话。自由派主流媒体撒谎。就这么简单。
>>1535181
He lies
他撒谎
>>1535190
He lies
他撒谎
（如果你觉得这篇文章有启发，可以点击这里付费）
