Hindenburg Omens

So if you remember back in 2008, crunching the numbers on the stock market, the market kept "flashing" a signal that some wit had named "the Hindenburg Omen". Basically:

如果你还记得 2008 年，算过股市的数就会知道，市场不断「闪烁」一个被某天才命名为「兴登堡凶兆」的信号。大意是：

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hindenburg_Omen&oldid=568537539

(using an OLD version of the wiki page because the dumbfuck editors have removed practically all the info from the current version)

（用的是旧版维基页面，因为那帮蠢货编辑把现版本的信息几乎删光了）

> 1. market breadth sucks: The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000).

> 1. 市场宽度极差：纽交所当日创 52 周新高和新低的数量都大于等于当日上涨或下跌总家数的 2.8%（通常约 84 只，当日总数约 3000）。

> 2. The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.

> 2. 纽交所指数高于 50 个交易日前的水平。原始定义是 10 周均线上行，新规则与观察新高新低的日度数据更匹配。

> 3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.

> 3. 同日 McClellan 震荡指标为负。

> 4. The number of New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).

> 4. 新高数量不能超过新低数量的两倍（但新低可以是新高的两倍以上）。

> As a rule, the shorter the time-frame in which the conditions listed above occur, and the greater the number of conditions observed in that time frame, the stronger the Hindenburg Omen. If several --but not all-- of the conditions are repeatedly observed within a few weeks, that is a stronger indicator than all of the conditions observed just once during a 30-day period.

>一般来说，上述条件出现的时间窗越短、满足的条件越多，兴登堡凶兆越强。几周内反复出现多个——但非全部——条件，比 30 天内全部条件只出现一次的信号更强。

I bring this up right now because apparently this signal has been hitting a lot lately, but the market keeps getting driven higher and higher by retards who think that they'll only survive the AIpocalypse if they own AI stonks.

现在提这个，是因为这信号最近频繁触发，但市场却一浪高过一浪——全靠那帮以为「只有持有 AI 股才能在 AI 末世活下来」的智障在推。

Anyway, just wanted to let everyone know that we may be looking at a significant market decline approaching fast.

总之，就是提醒大家：一场大幅下跌可能正在快速逼近。

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1789016370750741.jpg

>>62675782

2008 was more than a decline

2008 可不只是下跌

It shut most of the country down for a year just like covid did.

它让大半个国家停摆了一年，跟疫情一样。

>>62675782

Would be nice but clownworld.

那倒是不错，可惜这是小丑世界。

>>62675788

Yeah I know, I was there, and it was more like four or five years. 2011 was actually worse than 2008. Also, the whole thing STARTED in 2007, you could see it forming when all the "new model" mortgage companies started collapsing.

我知道，我亲历了，而且实际是四五年的事。2011 年其实比 2008 更惨。而且整场灾难 2007 年就开始了——「新模式」房贷公司连环倒闭时就能看到苗头。

I did really well until early 2009, then I got wiped out when Bernanke started intervening hard in markets. Every fucking time I took out a position, that fucking kike would blow it up the next morning.

我一路做得很好，直到 2009 年初被抹平——伯南克开始强力干预市场。我他妈每次建仓，那犹太佬第二天早上就把行情砸烂。

A friend's brother made out like a fucking bandit on it, though -- he figured out that oil prices were a nearly perfect leading indicator for what would happen in stocks a few days later. He made enough to retire off of that.

不过一个朋友的兄弟在那波赚翻了——他发现油价几乎是几天后股市走势的完美领先指标。赚到的钱够他直接退休。

>>62675782

When will the blimp come down?

那飞艇什么时候坠下来？

>>62675782

Timing works with oil about to go bonkers. I’m already positioned in energy and PMs. I’m just not gonna sell you guys

时间点跟油价即将疯起来正好对上。我已经布局能源和贵金属。就是不会卖给你们

>>62675969

I've been thinking about buying S&P puts. I wish I knew how to model them to maximize return. Like, buy more at a shitty strike price, or fewer at a price where there's lots of intrinsic already; go long-dated or go short-dated and roll positions; that sort of thing.

我一直想买标普 put。真希望知道怎么建模收益最大化：是行权价烂点多买，还是内在价值多的行权价少买；买长存续期，还是短存续期滚动；诸如此类。

>>62675782

Finance analysts are an absolute joke tbqh. Sure, what they say makes sense and is coherent, but only because the narrative is always constructed in retrospect. Market predictions by experts are slightly less of a coinflip than randomly purchasing stocks. All the math behind it is, again, coherent but feels like an extraordinary amount of work for naugh. Plus even if an actor somehow found a way to predict the market, by using that information the system becomes unpredictable again.

说实话金融分析师就是个大笑话。他们说的话当然通顺自洽——因为叙事永远是事后拼出来的。专家的市场预测比随机买股准不了多少。背后那堆数学同样自洽，但感觉是巨大的无用功。而且就算有人真找到了预测市场的方法，用上这信息后系统又变得不可预测了。

Point being, things like the hindenburg omen and expensive pattern alalysis software is astrology for men

所以重点就是：兴登堡凶兆和昂贵的形态分析软件，本质是男人的占星术

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1789026722963771.png

>>62676003

>Point being, things like the hindenburg omen and expensive pattern alalysis software is astrology for men

>所以重点就是：兴登堡凶兆和昂贵的形态分析软件，本质是男人的占星术

I agree most TA is the equivalent of astrology. TA "works" because so many big Wall Street trading firms believe in TA.

我同意大部分 TA 等于占星。TA「有效」只是因为华尔街那么多大交易机构信它。

The HO is different. It is a measure of a market that is running on fumes. When the gas tank empties, the market drops.

兴登堡凶兆不一样。它衡量的是一个靠残油苟活的市场。油箱一空，市场就掉。

>we may be looking at a significant market decline approaching fast

>一场大幅下跌可能正在快速逼近

The US Treasury Secretary has resorted to bluffing people into buying. It doesn't look good.

美国财政部长已经沦落到靠忽悠大家买入的程度了。形势不妙。

>>62676243

Yeah he can be the egg man except for Japanese yen.

行吧，除了对日元，他都可以当那个「蛋人」。

Here's the thing, the FOMC is predicted to raise rates next week.

问题是，市场预测 FOMC 下周要加息。

But Trump threatened to have another "tariff tantrum" if the FOMC doesn't LOWER rates next week.

但特朗普威胁说 FOMC 要是不「降」息，就再来一次「关税暴怒」。

Either way, stocks are fucked.

无论哪边，股票都完蛋。

>>62683071

So do the maths on what happens when they lower rates next week...

那算算下周降息会发生什么吧……

They probably won't move. That's a "good result" for the market and keeps Trump in play for more "controversy" to keep people guessing.

多半按兵不动。对市场来说这是「好结果」，还能让特朗普继续制造「争议」吊着大家的胃口。

>>62683334

Trump is so shitty at picking appointees that I have zero doubt Kevin Warsh will fuck him over.

特朗普挑人的眼光烂到让我毫不怀疑凯文·沃什会坑死他。