>just go in bro you can't time the market

>just go in bro you can't time the market

>别想太多直接进场，你不可能精准抄底

>what's the worst that could happen?

>最坏能怎样？

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1786008801522206.jpg

>my time horizon is 1 year

>我的持仓期限是一年

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1786010149368635.jpg

>>62568126

At most.

最多一年。

>>62568096

You can't compare pre-2008 markets to now. Everything has changed, we are now in the fake and gay era. Corporations are now backed by the state, and monetary policy is used to continuously pump assets.

你不能拿2008年前的市场跟现在比。一切都变了，我们现在活在假大空的基佬时代。企业背后有国家撑着，货币政策就是用来不断吹高资产的。

>>62568218

then don't bother investing, just trade

那就别琢磨什么投资了，直接去交易

I'd rather baghold stocks into a recession than baghold fiat into hyperinflation, especially when the latter seems more likely considering central banks and politicians have turned the moneyprinter on full speed literally every single time there has been stress in the market. What the fuck makes you think they'll stop?

我宁愿在衰退中死抱股票，也不愿在恶性通胀中死抱法币，尤其考虑到央行和政客每次市场一有压力就把印钞机开到最大，后者似乎更有可能发生。你他妈凭什么觉得他们会停手？

>>62568296

so you'd rather have imaginary fairy dust than money that could at least buy something?

所以你宁愿要虚幻的仙尘，也不要至少还能买点东西的钱？

>>62568311

If the stocks can be sold, they can be converted to money at will. It's not that complicated.

股票能卖的话，随时可以换成钱。没那么复杂。 ⟦ 祝你在第三次世界大战里卖股票好运，那时城市被军方封锁，水电公用设施每天只运行三小时，互联网永久断掉。

>>62568319

good luck selling your stocks in WW3 when your city gets locked down by the military and water, electricty and utilities only run for 3h a day, and internet is cut off forever

祝你在第三次世界大战里卖股票好运——到时候你所在的城市被军队封锁，水、电和公共设施每天只供应3小时，互联网永久断掉。

>>62568096

you're supposed to keep buying when it's crashed to bring down your average, stupid.

崩盘时你应该继续买入拉低均价，蠢货。

>>62568322

That's what you're saving for? WW3?

你存钱就是为了这个？第三次世界大战？

In WW3 money won't help you.

三战里钱救不了你。

>>62568096

as an immortal being who exists on an infinitely long time horizon, this is perfectly fine. you have to remember that you can't time the market -- WARREN BUFFET SAID SO. so you just have to buy the dip and lock in for the ride.

作为一个存在于无限时间跨度上的不朽存在，这完全没问题。你得记住，你不能择时市场——沃伦·巴菲特说的。所以你只要逢低买入，然后坐稳享受旅程。

>>62568096

If you did DCA from 2000 to 2015 you'd be way up.

如果你从2000年到2015年做定投，早就大赚了。

You can't time the market so don't go all in all at once that's the whole point

你不能择时市场，所以别一次性全砸进去，这才是关键。

>>62568096

So you're saying the worst that could happen is you are back to breakeven only 30 years before retirement? Oh the horror!

所以你的意思是，最坏的情况也就是在退休前30年回到盈亏平衡点？哦，好可怕啊！

Meanwhile had you reinvested your dividends you'd have been back to breakeven in 2012. And had you bought into the market either a year earlier or later, or DCA'd into the market you'd have been back to break even in 2007.

与此同时，如果你把股息再投资，2012年就回本了。如果你早一年或晚一年买入，或者定投进入市场，2007年就回本了。

Ah yes, the person that made 100% of their lifetime earnings all at once at one horrific point in time and put it all into the market immediately

啊对，那个在某个恐怖的时点一次性赚了一辈子收入，然后立刻全投进市场的人。

>>62568096

small price to pay for our greatest ally. are you brown?

为我们最伟大的盟友付出这点代价不算什么。你是棕色皮肤的吗？

>>62568322

>good luck selling your stocks in WW3

>祝你在三战里卖股票好运

How bad could it be?

能有多糟？

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1786019573875133.png

>>62568322

>investment strategy relies on apocalyptic scenarios to pay off

>投资策略依赖末日场景来获利

Good luck with that lil buddy

祝你好运，小老弟。

>>62568221

It would probably be even worse

可能还会更糟。

>buy in 2027

>2027年买入

>crash in 2029

>2029年崩盘

>back to break even in 2065-2070

>2065-2070年才回本

>>62568096

DCA

>>62568096

I'm so afraid of that I have only deployed ~25% one year after inheriting

我太害怕了，继承遗产一年后只部署了约25%。

>>62568096

who the hell fullstacks the very top and never dca's at any point in time after?

谁他妈会在最高点全仓，之后从不定投？

>>62570124

>DCA

>market crashes right after you've finished DCAing

>定投刚结束市场就崩了

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1786047760214397.jpg

>>62568096

So the problem here is assuming that every stock goes up forever, that every stock is “good”, and that active portfolio management is a meme

这里的问题是假设每只股票永远上涨，每只股票都是“好”的，而且主动投资组合管理是个笑话。

The people who actually end up bagholding for a decade deserve it, they are the equivalent of betting money they they can place in a 1500m race in the Olympics while being a hobby runner

真正死抱十年的人活该，他们就像业余跑者拿钱赌自己能参加奥运会1500米比赛。

The stock market is a competition. You are competing against other people; it’s not free money

股市是竞争。你在跟其他人竞争，不是白捡的钱。

>>62570270

It’s okay to be a hobby runner (DCA/still have a day job/whatever)

当个业余跑者没毛病（定投/还有正常工作/随便什么）。

But when you’re a hobby trader/investor and you somehow get the ego and conviction to go all in with leverage on dumb shit like high beta tech/semiconductors/memory after they’re up like 200% ytd, yeah bro you 100% deserved that loss

但你要是业余炒股/投资，偏偏还膨胀到觉得自己能行，全仓加杠杆梭哈那种已经年内涨了200%的高贝塔科技/半导体/存储垃圾股，那兄弟，这亏损你100%活该

>followed this logic

>照着这个逻辑做了

>now down a lot (unrealized)

>现在亏大了（浮亏）

>the things I invested in either have a bullish outlook or good earningsbut are still getting sold down hard or pumping very little

>我投的东西要么前景看好要么财报不错，但还是被猛砸或者就涨一点点

So when does the winning start

那啥时候才能开始赢啊