Why don't they crank up memory production?

Are they ACTUALLY secretly anticipating an incoming crash and don't want to hold the bag?

他们实际上是在暗中预计即将发生的事故并且不想承担责任吗？

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1786805992967072.png

>>109563377

You see, last time they saw a big spike in demand was when everybody was buying and building PCs during COVID. They scaled up production accordingly, and just as the new fabs were coming online, demand crashed, along with memory prices and by extension profits.

你看，上一次他们看到需求大幅上涨是在新冠疫情期间每个人都在购买和制造个人电脑时。他们相应地扩大了生产规模，就在新晶圆厂投产之际，需求急剧下降，内存价格也随之下降，利润也随之下降。

During the AI boom, Micron literally said they wouldn't scale up production to prevent the same thing from happening again, because it's their duty as a publicly traded company to maximize profit and shareholder value. If OpenAI is willing to pre-order their entire production run for the next 5 years at a 10x markup just to prevent the competition from getting its hands on the hardware, that's fine by Micron (and Samsung, and Hynix, because those are the only ones producing memory chips), because it means massive profits for no additional investment.

在人工智能热潮期间，美光确实表示，他们不会扩大生产规模来防止同样的事情再次发生，因为作为一家上市公司，他们有责任实现利润和股东价值最大化。如果 OpenAI 愿意以 10 倍的加价预订未来 5 年的全部生产，只是为了防止竞争对手获得硬件，那么美光（还有三星和海力士，因为它们是唯一生产存储芯片的公司）没问题，因为这意味着无需额外投资即可获得巨额利润。

>>109563377

>Why don't they crank up memory production?

>他们为什么不提高内存产量？

even if the production was 50x what it is now the AI companies would buy all of that up too, don't you get it? the investor class has taken a huge shit on the consumer/working class. you will pay the premium or go without. welcome to capitalism. those with the capital always win

即使产量是现在的 50 倍，人工智能公司也会购买所有这些，你明白吗？投资者阶层对消费者/工人阶级造成了巨大的伤害。您要么支付保费，要么不付保费。欢迎来到资本主义。有资本的总是赢家

Why would they increase supply when they’re all making record profits squeezing all the goyim?

当他们都赚取创纪录的利润并挤压所有非犹太人时，为什么他们还要增加供应呢？

>>109563630

>squeezing all the goyim?

> 压榨所有非犹太人？

Aren't all the niggers making DRAM Korean? AND the fuckers buying it are Jewish. The goyim win, just keep using your DDR4 until this fad ends.

做DRAM的黑鬼不都是韩国人吗？而且买它的人都是犹太人。非犹太人的胜利，只要继续使用 DDR4，直到这股热潮结束。

There's no shortage, they're just saying that so they can jack up the prices and nobody can or will do shit about it. The prices won't ever go back down either. Welcome to the new normal.

并不存在短缺，他们只是这么说，这样他们就可以抬高价格，而没有人能够或不会对此采取行动。价格也永远不会回落。欢迎来到新常态。

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1786809370709880.jpg

>>109563377

>secretly

no, it's public information

不，这是公开信息

>anticipating an incoming crash

> 预计即将发生崩溃

yes, like it happened multiple times whtin the last 20 years.

是的，就像过去20年里发生过很多次一样。

remember when a 1TB ssd was 30€? that was just 3 years ago, memory (of any sort) makers will never ever make the same mistakes again.

还记得 1TB SSD 的价格是 30 欧元吗？就在三年前，存储器（任何类型）制造商将永远不会再犯同样的错误。

> don't want to hold the bag?

> 不想拎包？

it takes years and billions to create a fab and it takes hours to turn it into dead asset.

创建一座晶圆厂需要数年时间和数十亿美元，而将其变成死资产也需要数小时。

for once I agree with them, there is 0 reason to increase production beyond what was originaly planned years ago, current AI landscape is NOT sustainable, hardware and cloud companies are making money but their clients do not, many will go bankrupt and the future will be built on open source weights and datasets scrapped from the ruins of the current era of AI madness.

一旦我同意他们的观点，就没有理由增加超出多年前最初计划的产量，当前的人工智能景观是不可持续的，硬件和云公司正在赚钱，但他们的客户却没有，许多公司将破产，未来将建立在开源权重和从当前人工智能疯狂时代的废墟中废弃的数据集上。

>>109563377

Because memory has famously gone through many boom and bust cycles, it's incredibly risky for them.

因为众所周知，记忆经历了许多繁荣和萧条周期，这对他们来说是非常危险的。

>>109563787

THE AI BUBBLE WILL POP ANY DAY NOW

You'll be saying the same shit in 5,10,15,20 years.

5年、10年、15年、20年后你还会说同样的话。

>>109563806

do you even fucking know what a bubble is?

你他妈的知道什么是泡沫吗？

it's nothing as spectacular as a toal collapse, it's JUST market consolidation as investors decide to stop investing in companies that do NOT make money, that's IT.

没有什么比彻底崩溃更引人注目的了，这只是市场整合，因为投资者决定停止投资那些不赚钱的公司，就是这样。

openai and anthropic are surviving on circular economy, tax breaks, anti-competition practices and briberies, this is documented and public knowledge, glowies know this, these companies won't last, it does not fucking matter if retards like you don't believe it.

openai 和 anthropic 靠循环经济、税收减免、反竞争行为和贿赂生存，这是有据可查的公共知识，光鲜亮丽的人知道这一点，这些公司不会持久，如果像你这样的白痴不相信，那也没关系。

google, meta and other will continue to sell their dogshit chatbot, this is NOT going away

谷歌、meta 和其他公司将继续出售他们的狗屎聊天机器人，这不会消失

>>109563787

>the future will be built on open source weights and datasets scrapped from the ruins of the current era of AI madness.

>未来将建立在开源权重和从当前人工智能疯狂时代的废墟中废弃的数据集的基础上。

Or Anthropic/OpenAI stay put and become the next google.

或者 Anthropic/OpenAI 留在原地，成为下一个谷歌。

>>109563860

I aint reading that essay. I accept your concession.

我不读那篇文章。我接受你的让步。

Go do some reading about Google's new AI CEO, these people genuinely believe they're basically building the Machine God.

去读一些关于谷歌新任人工智能首席执行官的文章，这些人真诚地相信他们基本上是在建造机器之神。

>>109563860

>these companies won't last

>这些公司不会长久

Isn't it always the smaller companies that are most likely to get culled or absorbed? If you think the tech itself is more than a fad, why wouldn't the biggest players have the highest chance of surviving?

难道不是最有可能被淘汰或吸收的都是规模较小的公司吗？如果您认为技术本身不仅仅是一种时尚，那么为什么最大的参与者没有最高的生存机会呢？

>>109563450

That's borrowed money, though, they're never getting paid.

不过，那是借来的钱，他们永远不会得到报酬。

Where does this meme come from? Micron and Hynix are building out at a record pace and Samsung originally said they wouldn't increase production but are now building out too. Do you think building a semiconductor fab takes 30 days or something?

这个模因从哪里来？美光和海力士正在以创纪录的速度扩建，三星最初表示不会增加产量，但现在也在扩建。你认为建造一座半导体工厂需要 30 天吗？

>>109564039

So? Massive amounts of money is going straight into their pockets now because they can borrow against projected profits. Who cares if they don't get paid and go bankrupt, the government will just bail them out. Just like how Obama bailed out the banks instead of jailing them, whoever is in charge will spout BS about too big to fail and write them a fat welfare check. They get double the profits thus way too, all payed for by the middle class.

所以？现在，大量资金直接流入他们的口袋，因为他们可以用预计利润借款。谁在乎他们是否没有得到报酬并破产，政府只会救助他们。就像奥巴马救助银行而不是监禁银行一样，无论谁掌权，都会大肆宣扬“太大而不能倒”的废话，并给它们开出一张丰厚的福利支票。他们也因此获得了双倍的利润，而这一切都是由中产阶级买单的。

>>109563597

In that case, they're actually saving the world economy by preventing runaway AI investment

在这种情况下，他们实际上是通过防止人工智能投资失控来拯救世界经济

>>109563787

>remember when a 1TB ssd was 30€?

>还记得 1TB SSD 的价格是 30 欧元吗？

I don't.

我不换。

>>109569835

you missed summer 2023

你错过了 2023 年夏天