Do you think another trillion in AI is justified? Is the danger from Chinese AI

Do you think another trillion in AI is justified? Is the danger from Chinese AI so big?

你觉得再往AI砸一万亿合理吗？中国AI的威胁真有这么大？

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1785796505424772.jpg

>>109452276

Well they know what they are doing, the trump admin isn't stupid.

他们心里有数，特朗普班子不傻。

it's not enough

这还不够。

>>109452276

Will it turn out better than the CHIPS Act?

这能比《芯片法案》强到哪去？

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1785797140833713.png

>>109452276

The question we should be asking is what happens if China makes some breakthrough instead of us? If China develops some hegemonic AI tech that they control (AGI, for instance) the US bubble will explode and we'll need to bail them all out. It's unlikely but with novel tech it's kind of a crapshoot as far as who has the right idea first. Look at Nikola Tesla vs Marconi with wireless communication. Now imagine if the US government sank 2 trillion dollars into Tesla's wireless communication method involving balloons or whatever it was without knowing what Marconi was working on in Italy.

我们该问的是，万一中国先突破了我们怎么办？如果中国搞出某种他们掌控的霸权级AI技术（比如AGI），美国这泡沫就炸了，到时候全得靠政府兜底。这不太可能，但新技术这东西本来就是赌运气，看谁先摸对路。想想特斯拉和马可尼争无线通信那事。再想象一下，要是美国政府当初不知道马可尼在意大利搞什么，就往特斯拉那套气球之类玩意的无线通信方案里砸了两万亿美元……

>>109452401

just 2 more weeks and the sigmoids will AGI!!

再过两周，sigmoid们就要实现AGI了！！

>>109452276

>Do you think another trillion in AI is justified

>你觉得再投一万亿给AI合理吗

Absolutely. In fact its the minimum. I'd argue for more.

绝对合理。事实上这还是最低限度，我甚至觉得应该投更多。

>>109452470

I said it's not likely bro. But if they have some eureka moment you have to agree it would fuck the US economy

我说了不太可能，兄弟。但万一他们突然灵光一现搞出个突破，你不得不承认那会干翻美国经济。

>>109452561

Its about as likely as pigs flying. Nothing at all indicates that chyna can do anything but distill what murrica already created.

这概率跟猪会上树差不多。没有任何迹象表明中国除了蒸馏美国已有的东西之外还能干出啥别的。

>>109452581

I thought their latest models came out too quickly after the most recent burger models to be distillations of them.

我寻思他们最新的模型发布得太快了，紧跟着最近的汉堡系列模型出来，不像是蒸馏出来的。

>>109452470

Cope Luddite

接着自我安慰吧，老古董。

You are not required anymore

你不再被需要了

>>109452581

Anthropic don't seem to agree with you

Anthropic看起来不认同你的说法。

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1785799364658032.jpg

>>109452754

even if this X memeshot is true, sonnet 4.6 is a far cry from fable 5

就算这个X上的段子是真的，sonnet 4.6跟fable 5还差着十万八千里呢。

its not SOTA

它根本不是最顶尖的。

>>109452293

lol

danger comes from these ack-tropican pests who spend money on a stupid hype and democrat candidates

真正的威胁来自那些阿克特罗皮亚害虫，他们把钱砸在愚蠢的炒作和民主党候选人身上。

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1785803262142501.png

>>109452641

Arrest libtard.

把自由派傻逼抓起来。

the boss fired you because he hates you.

老板炒你是因为他恨你。

>>109452276

they are getting raped by based china, ofc they are shitting themselves over losing power

他们被牛逼的中国碾压了，当然急得不行，怕丢掉权力。

if china can still claude and get near claude performance, why cant they distill humans and get free AGI

如果中国能克隆Claude还接近Claude的水平，那为啥不能蒸馏人类直接白嫖AGI？

An absolute zero of these dumbasses can understand 5d so good luck

这些蠢货里没有一个能理解五维空间，所以祝你好运吧。

Chink can't innovate only steal. All their AI progress are build upon the distillation of western models

中国佬只会偷不会创新。他们所有的AI进展都建立在蒸馏西方模型的基础上。

>>109452276

I think Trump was convinced that the answer to both of those was: Yes

我觉得特朗普当时深信，这两个问题的答案都是：是。

>>109452276

China has us by the balls, and Trump's little gang would do anything to not suffer humiliation from China themselves over some hallucination machine outperforming ours and gaining the upper hand. I kinda want China to make the breakthrough personally to see how full panic mode the AI bubble here will go into and the monopoly exploding.

中国掐着我们的命根子，特朗普那帮人为了不因为某个幻觉机器比我们的强而丢脸、让中国占上风，什么都干得出来。我个人有点希望中国能做出突破，看看这里的AI泡沫会陷入多大的恐慌，以及垄断怎么炸掉。

>>109452276

if government is invested 1Trillion, Government will expect a major ruling stake, like access to all chats, backward analysis of all users, user IQ extraction etc.

如果政府投了一万亿，政府肯定期望拿到大股东的待遇，比如访问所有聊天记录、回溯分析所有用户、提取用户智商啥的。

basically a voting stake

基本就是投票权。

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/g/1785832024237779.jpg

>>109456376

but is the trillion going to model controllers like OpenAI and Anthropic or to compute providers? why give so much to OpenAI and Anthropic (a foreign company) only for them to pay google, oracle and others? if the datacenters are needed and they are what costs the vast majority of that Trillion Dollars, why not invest the governments borrowed money in the compute processors? if opensource models are nypothetically going to beat openai or at least compete hard, why not control compute and encourage US companies to create opensource models and/or use opensource models? make US competitors for openai and anthropic because the US compute is going to be used?

但是这一万亿是给OpenAI和Anthropic这些模型公司，还是给算力提供商？为啥要给OpenAI和Anthropic（一家外国公司）那么多钱，然后让他们再去付钱给谷歌、甲骨文之类的？如果数据中心是刚需、占了那一万亿的大头，那政府为什么不把借来的钱投在算力处理器上？如果说开源模型理论上能打败OpenAI或者至少能硬刚，那为什么不控制算力、鼓励美国公司创建开源模型或者用开源模型？既然美国算力是要用的，为啥不搞出自家的对手来跟OpenAI和Anthropic竞争？

>>109456627

>encourage US companies to create opensource models and/or use opensource models?

>鼓励美国公司创建开源模型或者用开源模型？

cause thats a total waste of money

因为那就是纯烧钱。

you want to bet on the WINNING horse, not burn your money

你得押注赢的那匹马，不是把钱往火里扔。

>>109456627

theres the chosen ones

天选之人是有的。

but some of them are just more chosen than others

但有些人就是比其他人更天选。

>>109452641

You neither.

你也不懂。

>>109452769

opus 4.6 is about on par with fable 5, opus 5 and sonnet 5 are both better than fable 5.

opus 4.6大概跟fable 5一个水平，opus 5和sonnet 5都比fable 5强。

>>109456376

University of toronto absolutely did not develop deep learning, and deep learning was absolutely not developed in 2006.

多伦多大学绝对没有开发深度学习，深度学习也绝对不是2006年搞出来的。

>>109452754

Anthropic is such a scam company, its unreal

Anthropic就是个骗子公司，简直离谱。

>>109456627

There are a number of reasons. Number 1 is that the publicly stated purpose of that trillion is not its main goal. They're looking at AI as the future of military and national security capability first and foremost, so it's something they're willing to burn nearly any amount of money on to win. Obviously, with this being the bulk of their research, they aren't going to open source anything. Second, and related to that, they want the IP to stay with US companies to prevent foreign governments and companies from copying/pasting/reverse engineering, etc. Partially so that they can recoup some investment from the consumer applications. Third, investing in compute vs capability means turning us into the AI version of what China is for tech hardware. Basically just factory slaves for the real innovators. No one wants that. Fourth, the politicians are getting kickbacks in some form or another so they'll play crony capitalism and not allow even closed source competition to enter the market without a fight

原因有好几个。第一，那一万亿美元公开宣称的目的并不是它的主要目标。他们首先是把AI看作未来军事和国家安全能力的核心，所以这是他们愿意砸几乎任何钱去赢的东西。显然，既然这是他们研究的大头，他们不可能开源任何东西。第二，跟这个相关，他们想让知识产权留在美国公司手里，防止外国政府和公司抄袭/复制/逆向工程等等。部分原因是为了能从消费应用中收回一些投资。第三，投资算力而不是能力，意味着把咱们变成AI版的“中国之于科技硬件”——基本上就是给真正的创新者当工厂奴隶。没人想要这个。第四，政客们都在拿各种形式的好处费，所以他们玩裙带资本主义，连闭源竞争对手想进市场都得拼个你死我活。

>>109452276

>Do you think another trillion in AI is justified?

>你觉得再来一万亿投AI合理吗？

sure

retarded investors should get punished

蠢货投资者就该被割韭菜。

>>109452276

It's to fund total surveillance you dork

这是为了资助全面监控，你个呆子。

>>109456955

>uno reverso

>反转了

>the plebs took back control of their institutions

>屁民夺回了他们机构的控制权

>now the survelianceshit is used to destroy criminality and corruption

>现在这监控玩意儿被用来打击犯罪和腐败

im not too worried

我倒不太担心。 ┯ 笑死，这是为了压着你，让你别愤世嫉俗退出社会，继续当牛做马被榨干到死那天。

>>109456962

Topkek, it's to hold you down so you don't ragequit society but keep on slaving and get sucked dry untill the day you die.

笑死，这玩意儿就是把你绑住，让你别愤世嫉俗逃离社会，继续当牛做马被榨干，直到死那天。

>>109452388

>that source

>就这来源？

Lol

>>109456627

He literally just told you that, they want a controlling stake

他刚都告诉你了，他们想要控股权。

>>109456975

were in tech, we can rise above this shit

咱们在科技圈，能凌驾于这破事之上。

all it takes is an idea, and perseverence

只需要一个想法，加上坚持。

and things are rife for systemic reform in europe

而且欧洲现在到处都适合系统性改革。

these reforms can spread to the rest of liberal democracies

这些改革能扩散到其他自由民主国家。

>>109457027

If you can, why aren't you?

你行你上啊，咋不上呢？

>>109452276

Let’s just call these “investments” what they are.

咱们直接把这些“投资”说白了吧。

Preemptive bailouts.

就是预防性救市。

It doesn’t matter what China does. Not a single AI company survives the year without your tax dollars and that will never change. Costs continue to increase while AGI fails to materialize, contrary to what clankers promised.

中国干什么根本不重要。没有你的税钱，任何一家AI公司都活不过一年，这永远变不了。成本一直在涨，而AGI却没影子，跟那些机器人吹的完全相反。