Negative ECY

Excess Cape Yield (ECY) is the inverted CAPE minus the TIPS yield. It means there is zero risk premium left in the S&P 500 compared to bonds. Yes, even TIPS are a better value. Hasn't been negative since 2000.

超额周期收益率（Excess Cape Yield, ECY）是反向CAPE减去TIPS收益率。这意味着标普500相对于债券已经没有任何风险溢价了。是的，连TIPS都比它划算。自2000年以来没这么负过。

图片: https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1785806673840825.jpg

Whut dat mean?

那是啥意思？

>>62558214

Lol this indicator is based on numbers before LLMs even existed. Completely useless.

哈哈，这指标是基于LLM出现之前的数据算的，完全没用。

Bonds having "better" value implies a non chance at state failure. The chance at state failure is not non-zero anymore, its extremely elevated

债券“更划算”意味着国家崩溃的概率为零。但国家崩溃的概率现在不是零了，而是高得离谱。

>>62558214

Why in the ever loving fuck would you hold bonds when you could just hold ownership in companies that will survive countries going tits up because they can just hop the border to a thriving country.

你真他妈的为啥要持债券？直接握着那些就算国家完蛋也能跨过边境跑路到繁荣国家的公司股份不好吗？

>>62559141

Because companies have a 10 year expected return of 2.409%, while TIPS have a 10 year real return of 2.447%.

因为公司股票的十年预期回报是2.409%，而TIPS的十年实际回报是2.447%。

>>62559141

And what country is that supposed to be? There is not a single territory on this planet whose governance organizations aren't on the verge of collapse, whose actors aren't mainly preoccupied with looting and attempting to "fight" system internal opposition when the system external opposition is growing like mold over them

那你说的是哪个国家？这地球上没有一个地方的治理机构不在崩溃边缘，没有一方的角色主要不是在忙着掠夺，然后试图“对付”体制内的反对派，而体制外的反对派像霉菌一样在他们身上疯长。