>AI公司搞了个壳公司发行数十亿债券来支付大规模……
>AI company creates shell company to take out billions in bonds to pay for massive data centers
>AI公司搞了个壳公司，发行数十亿债券来支付大规模数据中心
>shell company is on the books for being responsible for the bond
>壳公司账面上负责这些债券
>AI company just leases out data centers and does not have to declare the bonds as debt
>AI公司只是租用数据中心，不用把这些债券列为债务
>every AI company is now doing this for hundreds of billions of dollars in bond
>现在每个AI公司都在这么干，搞了几千亿美元的债券
How the fuck is this allowed?
这他妈怎么允许的？
>>62553016
Jews.
>>62553016
This is unironically how 2008 happened btw.
说真的，2008年就是这么发生的。
This time will be worse.
这次会更惨。
If you dont DCA into ETFs youre about to lose a shit ton of money. Maybe not tomorrow, but within the next 3 years.
如果你不定投ETF，你马上要亏一大笔钱。也许不是明天，但未来三年之内。
>>62553016
Google AI said it’s not a big deal because they have income from other sources to pay the debt
Google AI说这不是大事，因为他们有其他收入来源来还债。
>>62553054
>If you dont DCA into ETFs youre about to lose a shit ton of money. Maybe not tomorrow, but within the next 3 years.
>如果你不定投ETF，你马上要亏一大笔钱。也许不是明天，但未来三年之内。
"Everyone has to die someday"
“人总有一死嘛。”
Is that even a threat?
这算威胁吗？
Im still invested in indexes but ive cut my DCAing in half. My position in SGOV grows. Not so sure about where capex spending and returns on investment goes from here
我还是投了指数，但定投量砍了一半。我的SGOV仓位在涨。我不太确定资本支出和投资回报接下来会怎么走。 ⁾ 哈哈，想象一下如果我们整个系统就是建立在制造债务上的。
>>62553016
Haha imagine if our entire system was based upon creating debt
哈哈，想象一下如果我们的整个体系建立在制造债务之上
>>62553054
You'd be better off in cash than in the stock market in that scenario.
那种情况下你拿现金比待在股市里强多了。
>>62553016
I only hope SEC do their job and keep banks out of this.
我只希望SEC能干好自己的活，把银行挡在外面。
>>62553016
Yep. The banks that are holding these unmonetizable trashbonds are pretty much fucked. Rest in piss softbank, Japan has to liquidate its entire US trashbond holdings to unwind that fuck up by its majority BoJ controled ponzi enabling private credit emitters
没错。那些拿着这些没法变现的垃圾债的银行基本完蛋了。软银去死吧，日本得清掉它全部美国垃圾债持仓，才能收拾由它大股东BoJ控制的庞氏骗局式私人信贷发行方搞出的烂摊子
>>62553054
>Its bad
>这很糟糕
>Dca into etfs
>定投ETF吧
Wut
>>62554762
The banks are already chin deep in this shit. Who do you think has provided the credit lines? Grandma? I mean technically yes, pension funds are the base collateral, so grandma trusting that her check is coming for having paid for 40 years into the bankrupt ponzis is the absolute base layer, only that grandma is now totally cashflow negative and her grandchildren have reduced their contribution to the ponzi already by on average 10%
银行早就陷在这烂事里了。你以为信贷额度是谁提供的？奶奶？我是说技术上算是，养老金是底层抵押品，所以奶奶相信她交40年钱的社保支票会来的信任就是最底层，只不过这奶奶现在现金流完全为负，她孙子孙女已经平均削减了10%对庞氏骗局的投入
>>62554814
That's the "financial instruments" into which banks are currently bundling and relabeling the trashbonds so they get a good rating and pension funds buy the crap, and so should you. Jokes aside, short everything held by pension fund for the next, I guess 30-50 years
这就是那些“金融工具”——银行现在把垃圾债券打包重新贴标签，混个好评级，让养老金基金去买这些破烂货，你也该买。玩笑归玩笑，做空所有养老金基金持有的东西，为期……我猜个30到50年吧。
The play is obvious, this spending is backstopped by the government and the fed. Those hoping for the AI bubble to pop don't seem to realise that they will be footing the bill whether they like it or not. AI is seen as national security (for jews) and they will make sure you pay for it.
套路明摆着，这些支出有政府和美联储兜底。那些盼着AI泡沫破的人好像没意识到，不管愿不愿意，最后买单的都是他们自己。AI被当成国家安全问题（对犹太人来说），他们肯定会让你掏这笔钱。
>>62554825
>Too big too fail
>大到不能倒
>P-please bail out OR AI destroys the world
>求——求求你们救市吧，不然AI毁灭世界
>b-be afraid saaaar, please
>好——好怕怕哦老板，求求了
You should invest more into pseudo fear porn propaganda and pay off boomer ad media and astroturfers on social media to spam it
你应该多投点钱搞恐惧营销宣传，再花钱收买老登广告媒体和社交媒体上的水军疯狂刷屏。
>>62554825
Eh, that is implying they haven't already decided on Donald "shabbos goy" Trump as their fall guy. Makes perfect sense, lotta people hate him already and the narrative of him doing something to enrich himself not knowing the downstream consequences writes itself
嗯，这意思是说他们还没定好让唐纳德“安息日工具人”川普来背锅？挺说的通的，反正已经一堆人恨他了，给他编个“为了自肥不惜一切、根本不管后果”的叙事，都不用费劲。
Whats next? Are you going to try and tell us that the entire financial (good goy) system is created to screw us over by forcing us into debt??
下一步呢？你是不是还想告诉我们，整个金融（好奴才）体系就是设计出来逼我们负债、把我们往死里坑的？？
remeber how the guys in history ended that tried to put an end to this
记得历史上那些想终结这套的人最后是什么下场吗
we are literally living through the highs and probably the peak of that system with america being the glory puppy of our war mongers in the middle east
我们真真切切活在这套体系的鼎盛期、可能也是顶点，美国就是咱中东战争贩子手里的那条摇尾巴的狗。
and as a byproduct creating gaps in society by manipulating young women into abandoning everything for alleged freedom that will end in misery for our western society as a whole
然后副产品就是制造社会撕裂——忽悠年轻女性抛弃一切去追求所谓的“自由”，结果整个西方社会一起走向痛苦。
>>62553054
>it's gonna crash soon
>马上要崩了
>if you dont buy you will lose
>不买你就亏了
sir are you perhaps suffering brain damage
哥们你是不是脑子坏了
>>62553016
The financiers are picking winnings by indefinitely spending on them. So competition is impossible
金融大佬们靠无限印钱给自己买赢，所以根本不存在竞争的可能。
>we are the communists now
>现在我们才是共产主义者
Tf is a bond?
债券是啥玩意儿？
>>62556661
A title that states that the emitter owes "money" to the holder + interests at a certain date (the maturity). If the holder believes that the probability that the emitter cannt honor his debt at maturity the interest increases. The probability that any of these "AI labs/companies/wahtever" can honor the debt is basically 0; they have no positive cashflow and there only cashflow is more bonds. Its a classic ponzi
就是一张凭证，写着发行方欠“钱”给持有人，到期日（也就是到期时）还要付利息。如果持有人觉得发行方到期还不上的概率大，利息就升高。而这些“AI实验室/公司/随便啥”能还上债的概率基本为零——他们没有正现金流，唯一的现金流就是发更多债券。经典庞氏骗局。
>>62557245
mor interesting is what happens if the emitter goes belly up before maturity. Usually the bond owner has to eat a loss and gets nothing back, the money he loaned is now 0. The same way "states" finance themselves, only that YOU are the one that owes the money to the holder, because, well in a democracy, YOU are the state (despite never having seen a cent of the money that got borrowed in your name and is financing the security details and residences of politicians, bureaucrats, public financed NGOs/companies...)
更有意思的是如果发行方在到期前就暴雷了会怎样。通常债券持有人只能自认亏损，一分钱拿不回来，借出去的钱直接归零。“国家”也是这么给自己融资的，只不过这次你是欠钱的人——因为在民主制度下，你就是国家本身（尽管你从来没见到借来的哪怕一分钱，而这些钱正在给政客、官僚、公费资助的NGO/企业的安保和住所买单……）
Yeah I know what you think
行，我知道你在想啥
KILL ALL PUBLIC FINANCED INDIVIDUALS NOW
I'm baffled they failed to monetize AIs even after 5 years and just eating the losses for no reason
我真是服了，都五年了还没把AI变现，就这么白白亏着钱，毫无理由。
>>62557284
How are they supposed to "monetize" it? The best they came up with are subscription scams that bank on pay piggies paying for a service they dont use BUT instead the pay piggies are over using the resources to make coom bait, ERPs with a machine or vibe code shit that has no demand, and forcing the service to reduce production costs by providing less service and incentivizing the use of local models.
他们打算怎么“变现”？憋出来的招就是搞订阅割韭菜，指望那些付费猪仔买自己根本不用的服务——结果这帮猪仔反而拼命烧资源，拿来生成涩图、跟机器搞角色扮演，或者用vibe coding编一堆没人要的破玩意，逼得平台只能砍服务降成本，还撺掇大家用本地模型。
"AI" is commodified software, that costs an arm and a leg to train, whose method of training is open source AND that costs an arma and a leg in computational power to run. For it to be profitable one would have to charge instead of 10 bucks per million tokens likely something like 500 per million tokens and at that point you can as well just hire a jeet.
“AI”就是被商品化的软件，训练贵得吓人，训练方法还开源，跑起来电费更是天价。想赚钱？每百万token得从10美元涨到500美元，那还不如直接雇个廉价外包算了。
Whoever was scammed into believing its a "growth motor" was the greatest fool of all time, the only greater fool can be whoever buys the bond of those ponzi companies. So mostly pension fudns buying etfs full of AI crap, or if one looks at the S&P, Nasdaq, Kospi, Nikkei.. Index funds...
那些信了“增长引擎”鬼话被割韭菜的，真是史上头号蠢货，唯一比他们更蠢的就是去买这些庞氏公司债券的。说白了就是养老金基金在买塞满AI垃圾的ETF，或者看看标普、纳指、韩国KOSPI、日经……指数基金全在里头。
>>62553016
The data center side of all this is really, really fucking fishy. There's no way enough hardware exists to fill all the ones they're trying to throw up everywhere and even if there was, those big gas turbine generators they all use are backordered for something like 5-10 years. It all smells like a gigantic scam of some kind and I suspect these little towns in the middle of nowhere they've been targeting with all kinds of ridiculous promises of tax revenue, jobs, etc. are going to end up holding the bag in the end.
数据中心这块才是真的离谱到家。根本没那么多硬件能填满他们到处要建的那些机房，就算有，他们用的那种大型燃气轮机发电机组，订单都排到五到十年后了。这整个闻起来就像个巨型骗局，我赌这些被忽悠的鸟不拉屎小镇——被各种税收、就业的离谱承诺砸过来——最后只能自己兜底。
>>62553054
No it isn't, and no it won't
不是这样，也不会那样。
>>62557284
>>62557313
the ai model right now is subsriptions where if you fully use it you will use for example about $100 worth of value for every $1 subscription, but most people and especially normies will never even use $1 in subscription because they will use massive cached answers and not generative logic, and in time these cached answers will also greatly lower the current cost for advanced users. But for now basically everybody on earth needs to buy chatgpt subscription for them to make money
现在AI模型的订阅模式是：你往死里用，每花1美元订阅能薅出100美元的价值，但大多数人，尤其普通用户，一辈子用不到1美元的量，因为走的是海量缓存答案，不是生成逻辑。而且时间长了，缓存答案也会大幅拉低高级用户的成本。但眼下，基本上全地球人都得买ChatGPT订阅，他们才能赚钱。
>>62553054
what did he mean by this?
他这话什么意思？
>>62553073
It's not a big deal for them to pay the debt. It's a big deal for the stock price if earnings for these tech companies go up in smoke because they can't keep spending like they have been doing. The company itself will be just fine. The stock price will be fucked though.
还债对他们来说不是大事。真正的大事是，如果这些科技公司不能再像以前那样烧钱，盈利就完蛋了，股价就得崩。公司本身没事，但股价会被搞惨。
>>62553016
Because it's all publicly reported, maybe in the footnotes on page 287, but the information is out there so you can't accuse them of defrauding investors
因为这都是公开披露的，也许在第287页脚注里，但信息确实摆在那，所以你不能指控他们欺诈投资者。
>>62558756
>making money with chatgpt
>靠ChatGPT赚钱？
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
its only a cost, the models, be it local or cloud are not making anybody a positive cashflow on their own. There is no direct transmission of capital/time/computing invested to profit. It isn't crapto.
这纯纯是成本，不管是本地还是云端模型，本身都带不来正向现金流。投入的资本、时间、算力没法直接转化成利润。这不是加密货币那种玩意儿。
And on the subscription scam, looking at xAI it isn't working. The garden-variety pajeet is maxing out the resources to generate hours on hours of coomer material, forcing xAI to reduce the service provided actively incentivizing the abandoning of the properitary cloud model walled garden.
说到订阅诈骗，看看xAI就知道行不通。那些普通咖喱佬把资源薅到极致，整天生成几个小时的色情内容，逼得xAI不得不砍服务，等于主动把自家那个封闭的专有云模型花园给干废了。
"AI" is economically speaking a total failure
从经济角度讲，“AI”就是个彻头彻尾的失败品。
>>62564316
And if one goes from the micro where "AI" is just a tool with costs and no direct transmission into profits toward the macro effects of generative models its a deflationary accelerator. It reduces the cost and barriers of entry to produce code, which substantially actively undermines the fake growth motor of the past 30 years, software itself. It incentivizes over production and destroys the myth of digital scarcity, which if one translates it to the fake voodoo metric of GDP growth, lets it deflate.
从微观上看，“AI”只是个只有成本、没法直接转化成利润的工具；往宏观走，生成模型的效应就是通缩加速器。它拉低了写代码的门槛和成本，直接拆了过去三十年那个虚假增长引擎——软件本身。它还刺激过度生产，把数字稀缺的神话砸得稀碎，换算成GDP那套糊弄人的巫术指标，这数字就得往下瘪。
Instead of the 150k wage of a code monkey going into GDP, there is now only a 1000 dollar transaction entering it. Where there was previously costs for saas products topping 10K/year, there is now nothing entering as the 1000 dollar investment can develop the necessary software internally.
以前一个码农15万美元年薪计入GDP，现在只剩一笔1000美元的交易进去。以前SaaS产品一年烧上万美元，现在一分钱不进账，因为花那1000美元投资就能在内部把需要的软件搞出来。
And that is only the software side; if one takes into account the "art" industry, multi Billions of transactions that entered GDP until now, these are going to rapidly decline — why hire and invest into some "artists", "directors", "venues", "marketing".... that can top 100M (often in credit) per product, that previously went into GDP, when one can reduce the costs to 1/100 of that for a product, and at the same time produce 1000 times the amount of products in less time, reducing the value of those products; or taking it to the demand side, the demand for these products never existing, because the teens that spend their allowance on spotify and co now simply generate their own music on a one time investment of an 800 dollar pc.
这还是光算软件这边；要是把“艺术”产业也算进去，以前每年几十亿的交易撑起GDP，这些马上就要暴跌——为啥还要花钱砸那些能烧上亿（通常还是赊账）的“艺术家”、“导演”、“场地”、“营销”……单件产品就顶上1/100的成本，能同时用更短时间产出1000倍的产品，把这些产品的价值往下压；再从需求端看，这些需求压根就不存在，因为那些把零花钱砸在Spotify上的小年轻，现在花800美元买台电脑一次性投入，就能自己生成音乐了。
"AI" is the most hilarious noose that 20th century GDP and credit expansion fetishists have put around their own necks while the chair is pulled away under heir feet.
“AI”是20世纪GDP和信贷扩张崇拜者给自己脖子上套的最搞笑绞索，椅子还在他们脚下被抽走。
>>62553054
2008 didn't happen in a massive speculative bubble. The shit and piss was going sideways and 2008 crash made the floor fall out. Thats what made it spooky. That kind of thing happening now would be healthy considering we are in a 2001 size+ speculative bubble.
2008年不是发生在巨型投机泡沫里。屎尿一直横流，2008年崩盘才让地板塌了。这才是吓人的地方。现在要是来这么一出反而是好事，因为我们正处在一个2001年级别的泡沫之上。
>>62557245
>emitter
The economy is so fake and gay. All this shit is just made up words for loan and debttard
这经济假得离谱，gay得不行。所有这堆破玩意，不过是给贷款和债务废物编的瞎话。
>>62564500
Oh yes, its extremely fake and rests 100% on belief, that down the road a macro economically deflationary commodified software suit is able to generate a positive cashflow to service debt that was collaterized with a debt financed capex expansion that is likely never going to find monetizable demand covering the investment as the price naturally deflates.
哦对，假到极致，全靠信念撑着——相信有一天，那套宏观上通缩的廉价软件体系能挤出正现金流，去还那些用债务撑起来的资本开支当抵押的债，而这笔投资的回报大概率永远找不到可变现的需求来覆盖，因为价格自然往下塌。
Hell its not even possible to bail that financial brainfart out with hyper inflation and public debt expansion as it would break the public bond market due to the thing getting bailed out destroying GDP growth. Its the end of the road of 60 years of pyramid scheming and ponzi games
我去，靠恶性通胀和公共债务扩张都救不了这个金融脑残，因为救市本身就会搞崩国债市场，从而摧毁GDP增长。六十年的金字塔骗局和庞氏游戏，到头了。
（如果你觉得这篇文章有启发，可以点击这里付费）
